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Predicted Mayfly Emergence Models - 2016

Learn more about Mayfly Watch.

Using data from mayfly emergences in previous years, the US Fish & Wildlife Service has developed laboratory-derived thermal models to predict the timing of future emergences.

The graphs below depict the recent outcome of models used to estimate the cumulative degree-days of development for Hexagenia bilineata nymphs in thirteen UMR navigation pools (based on daily river water temperature observations since the previous year's emergence) and the predicted date when a mass emergence was expected to occur in each pool in 2016.

The y, or vertical, axis shows the cumulative temperature units of development in the water (in degrees Celsius). The x, or horizontal, axis shows the number of days since a mass emergence occurred in the previous year. 

Preliminary results indicate models which used a threshold temperature of 8.5 C were the most accurate (smallest error) in estimating 2016 emergence dates (mean absolute error of 7.6 days per emergence event), followed by models which used values of 9.0 C and 8.0 C (mean absolute error of 9.0 and 10.3 days per emergence event, respectively).

Mayfly Watch predictions for Pool 2 July 2016

Mayfly Watch predictions Pool 4 July 2016

Mayfly Watch prediction Pool 6 July 2016

Mayfly Watch prediction Pool 8 July 2016

Mayfly Watch prediction Pool 10 July 2016

Mayfly Watch prediction Pool 11 July 2016

Mayfly watch prediction Pool 12 July 2016

Mayfly Watch prediction Pool 13 July 2016

Mayfly Watch prediction Pool 14 July 2016

Mayfly Watch prediction Pool 15 July 2016

Mayfly Watch prediction Pool 16 July 2016

2016 predicted emergence - Pool 19