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Predicted Mayfly Emergence Models - 2015

Using data from mayfly emergences in previous years, the US Fish & Wildlife Service has developed laboratory-derived thermal models to predict the timing of future emergences.

The maps below depict the documented mayfly emergence events (left) and the locations of the pools at which the thermal models were validated in 2015(right). These are preliminary results, as data continues to be input and summarized. 

Map created by Mark Steingraeber, USFWSMap created by Mark Steingraeber, USFWS

The graphs below depict the recent outcome of models used to estimate the cumulative degree-days of development for Hexagenia bilineata nymphs in thirteen UMR navigation pools (based on daily river water temperature observations since the previous year's emergence) and the predicted date when a mass emergence was expected to occur in each pool in 2015.